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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 19-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model