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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.58 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model