Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:05) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg. 24-S.Moore to KC 21 for 7 yards (10-M.Hollins; 99-C.Ferrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model