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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP