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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LV 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP