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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 12-T.Bertolet 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model