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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -1.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model