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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 12-T.Bertolet 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP