Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 82

Denver Broncos 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 34-I.Rodgers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 32. 34-I.Rodgers to IND 32 for no gain (16-T.Cleveland).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model