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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Washington to DEN 13 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model