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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 6-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model