4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 15

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model