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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 9 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to IND 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 33-D.Flowers pushed ob at IND 29 for 9 yards (26-M.Boone).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP