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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.15 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model