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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 16

Denver Broncos 6 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model