4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 49

Denver Broncos 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to IND 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-50-J.Griffith.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model