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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 26

Denver Broncos 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model