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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 14

New England Patriots 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP