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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 64

New England Patriots 29 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to DET 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 6 yards (23-K.Dugger; 22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -1.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model