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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 18

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 29

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Reynolds (13-Ja.Jones) [58-A.Jennings].

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model