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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 86

New England Patriots 26 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to DET 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-K.Raymond to DET 35 for 10 yards (22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.71 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 86, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model