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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 5

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model