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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 19

New England Patriots 16 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model