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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NE 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 12 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on NE-55-J.Uche, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NE 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model