Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(6:07) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 4 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.63 EP
73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model