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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model