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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP