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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 3 at the 41
Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10
What Actually Happened
(12:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Wallace.
The Three Options
GO
+0.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.52 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP
KICK
-0.23 EP
- 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
- 47% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
