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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.44 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP