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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 25 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP