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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 22 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 19-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP