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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 22 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to WAS 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-14-J.Cox.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP