Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 62

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. Injury Update: Jourdan Lewis has a groin injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model