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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model