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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NYJ 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP