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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.27 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP