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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 39

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis to PIT 17 for 22 yards (21-T.Norwood, 35-A.Maulet).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model