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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP