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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model