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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 46

Green Bay Packers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to NE 8, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model