Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 89

New England Patriots 24 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to GB 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 8-Am.Rodgers to NE 48 for 7 yards (30-M.Wilson; 18-M.Slater). PENALTY on GB-24-T.Carpenter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.05 EP
26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 89, worth -1.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model