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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 24 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NE 2, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP