Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 24 – Green Bay Packers 24

(3:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to GB 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model