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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 14 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP