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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 28
Green Bay Packers 7 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(11:16) 33-A.Jones left end pushed ob at NE 11 for 17 yards (32-D.McCourty).
The Three Options
GO
+2.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
- 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK
+1.34 EP
- 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
