Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 62

New England Patriots 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(10:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model