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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 25 – New Orleans Saints 25

What Actually Happened

(:29) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model