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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 16 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 14-R.Wright pass short right to 83-J.Nailor to NO 34 for 13 yards (25-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model