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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model