Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to NO 42, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-D.Harty to NO 44 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus, 29-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (29-K.Boyd), touched at NO 44, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at NO 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.90 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model